Becker Blog

The world according to Brian Becker

My Take on the Undecided Voters.

Posted by Brian Becker on November 2, 2008

I’ve been watching a lot of T.V. news shows lately, and a lot of the discussion has been about undecided voters and how they will ultimately decide to vote.  A lot of the “experts” are predicting that a large majority of them will break for McCain rather than Obama.  Chuck Todd of NBC News says 70% will likely end up going for McCain, and others have said numbers close to that as well.  According to them, if you aren’t yet in the Obama camp, you probably will end up voting for McCain because hes the safe choice, or that the Bradley effect will cause these undecideds to vote McCain.

I’m not convinced.  I actually take the opposite view as most of these pundits.  I think most of the undecided vote will break for Obama, but not by huge margins.  Historically, the undecided voters tend to break close to even between the two parties, and I haven’t seen anything to suggest that this won’t happen this time.  In my view, if you aren’t yet decided, chances are you either aren’t motivated enough to get out to vote, or you just don’t care who wins.

The current political climate suggests to me that most of these voters aren’t going to stick with Republican rule.  When anywhere from 85-90 percent of the country believes the country is heading in the wrong direction, it would baffle me to think that undecided voters are going to stick with the status quo.  And no matter how much McCain tries to distance himself from President Bush, his policies, with only a few exceptions, are just more of the same.  McCain has given a lot of reasons for people not to vote for Barack Obama, but hes barely given any reason to vote for him.  That is a problem.

The race issue, at least in my opinion, has also been way overplayed by the pundits.  The pollsters say that the majority of undecided voters that they polled are white, and claim that race is likely going to be one of the deciding factors in the voting booth.  Again, I’m not convinced.  Sure, the undecideds might be largely white voters, but anyone that Obama’s race is an issue for is not undecided.  They are already firmly in the McCain colum.

So thats what I think.  Many of the undecided voters probably won’t even show up to vote, and for those that do, I’m predicting they break for Obama 54% – 45%, with 1% going third party.  Incidently, thats also my prediction for the popular vote total.  Its entirely possible that I’m wrong, but its just as likely that those so called “experts” are wrong as well.  Not long now before we find out.


One Response to “My Take on the Undecided Voters.”

  1. Great stuff, thanks!

    My take on the undecideds? They just don’t want to tell the pollsters who they are voting for. And I agree, they will prolly break for Barack.

    Check out Obama on the Arts:

    We can do this.

    Yes we can.

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