McCain isn’t Out Yet.

I’ve been telling my friends and relatives in the past week and a half that this race is over. There is no way for McCain to pull this off. And while I certainly wish that were true, there is a slim chance that McCain could squeak by with a tiny electoral college victory. The odds are certainly stacked against him, but lets not get too confident. Although he has virtually no chance of winning the popular vote, McCain is putting all his money on stealing Pennsylvania which, if he pulled it off, could give him the only victory that matters: The electoral college.

The electoral map certainly looks bad for McCain. Hes almost guaranteed to lose Iowa and New Mexico, which both voted for Bush in 2004, and Obama holds double digit leads in almost all the states Kerry won in 2004. However, that does not equal a win. If McCain holds all the remaining Bush states, he could squeak by. That doesn’t seem plausible though. McCain recently slashed advertisement spending in Colorado, essentially conceding the state which would put Obama over the 270 electoral vote threshold to win. So what is his plan then? Pennsylvania. If McCain can pull off an upset in PA, he could afford to lose in both Colorado and Virginia, and even possibly North Dakota or Montana which have been tightening as of late.

Now, lets put this into perspective. Obama now holds, according to most of the recent polls, a double digit lead in Pennsylvania. It will take a major shift from now to election day for McCain to win that state, but we must remember that during the primary, about 19% of the voters said race played a major role in their decision. If there is such a thing as the Bradley Effect (which I’m not convinced there is), it might show up here.

As for holding the other states, I’m not convinced McCain could pull it off. Hes currently trailing in all of the swing states by a few points, and some recent polls show Obama even having a ten point lead in Indiana and a twelve point lead in Ohio. Take those with a grain of salt though. I tend to look at those polls as the outliers, unless there seems to be a trend. I’m still not convinced Obama is going to win Ohio and I’m very skeptical about Indiana. I’m very confident in Virginia and Colorado. Missouri looks promising, Obama recently had a rally with over 100,000 supporters in St. Louis, and has been creeping up in the polls since the debates. North Carolina and Florida are also looking good for Obama, but then again, I’ve learned not to ever put my faith in Florida. Even though Obama is polling well in Florida, theres already been lots of problems with their voting machines during the early voting, and its the one state I’ve seen that actually has more republicans voting early than democrats.

As far as we know, that is the McCain strategy for victory. It seems unlikely, but anything can happen. Remember the New Hampshire primary. I live in New York, and even though I’m absolutely positive Obama is going to win the state, I’m still going to get out to vote no matter what. If you’re in a swing state, be prepared to stand in line for hours, but don’t get discouraged. If complacency ever sets in and you’re thinking of not voting, just imagine waking up on November 5th and John McCain is the next President. The only way we can lose is if we get overconfident.

Always be closing. Always be closing.

Photo Blog of the Obama Campaign

Check this out. I ran across this blog today and thought it was worth sharing. I love these photo journals of the candidates behind the scenes.

Powell Puts Country First

Colin Powell’s endorsement of Barack Obama is not only significant, it was powerful. The right wing nut jobs are already out there throwing Powell under the bus by saying he only endorsed the democrat because they are both black, but anyone who actually watched him explain his decision on Meet the Press this morning should have a hard time believing that. Not only did he explain the decision clearly and eloquently, his words were a harsh indictment of the republican party and the McCain campaign’s dirty divisive tactics in recent weeks that should have republicans taking a hard look in the mirror about the direction that their party has taken in recent years. If they continue down that path, no doubt about it, more and more prominent and respected moderate republicans will come forth expressing disgust for the party.

I’ve said it before, and I’ll say it again. The republican party is not a “big tent” party anymore, and Powell’s statements proved that this is the case. He said he was concerned about the party moving further and further to the right, and that their divisive tactics are driving more and more people away, rather than bringing people together. The pick of Sarah Palin was obviously a way to bring those on the far right back into McCain’s camp, and Powell thinks she is not ready to be President.

The most important thing that he said in his endorsement, though, is in regards to the rumors about Obama being a Muslim. Of course, Obama is not a Muslim, but Powell took it a step further which I have been waiting for someone well known and respected to say on national television for a long time. So what if he was? What is wrong with being a Muslim in this country? According to Powell, high ranking officials in the G.O.P. are spreading this rumor as if it were a slur, and that someone of the Islamic faith could not possibly be President. This kind of hatred is not what America is about, and it reflects poorly on us all that we allow such discrimination to flourish. Muslim-Americans have fought and died for our country! Faith is not something that should disqualify someone for any elected office in the United States, and Powell’s recollection of this picture made the case better than I had thought possible. This needed to be said, and I’m glad he did.

This endorsement is important because Powell is such a respected figure in American politics, especially among military families and conservatives. If Powell says Obama is ready to be Commander-in-Chief than that carries a lot of weight, pretty much taking the issue off the table. I’m sure that a lot of the fence sitters, especially the conservative leaning ones, will look at this endorsement and reconsider their leanings toward McCain. Although a lot on the far left will dismiss this endorsement because of Powell’s role in selling the Iraq war, he remains a respected figure in both the right and the middle of the political spectrum.

It also could not have come at a more opportune time for Barack Obama, or a worse time for John McCain. Opportune for Obama because early voting is starting in many states this week, and has been going on in some states already. Bad for John McCain because there is so limited time left to make the case for his candidacy, the condemnation of his campaign by such a respected figure in his party could hurt him considerably. Not only that, an endorsement of this magnitude will likely take up two or three days of the news cycle which McCain desperately needs. With Obama having such a gargantuan lead in campaign cash, any free media he gets is good for him, but he will have a tough time capturing back the news cycle for a few days, which has been a tactic of his all along.

Watch his endorsement here in case you missed it.